What Funders Should Understand About the Fundraising Climate This Fall

September is when grantees start locking in the strategy that will carry them through year-end. Understanding the pressures they're operating under right now — not just the causes they represent — will make you a more effective and more responsive funder as fall unfolds.

Your grantees are facing more competition for grant dollars than they have in years. Foundation leaders themselves are reporting sharply increased demand for funding, at the same time many nonprofits are absorbing real declines in federal, state, and local government support. Some foundations have responded by increasing payout beyond what they'd planned or by offering emergency and rapid-response funding. If you haven't asked your grantees recently how government funding cuts are affecting them, September is a good moment to — the answer may be more urgent than your last conversation suggested.

Individual giving looks resilient on paper, but the base underneath it is narrowing. Total dollars from individual donors have kept growing, but that growth is increasingly driven by fewer, larger gifts rather than a broadening pool of donors (hi, Mackenzie Scott!)— long-tenured supporters now account for the majority of what's raised. For an organization you fund, that can mean real fragility even when their year-end numbers look fine. It's worth asking grantees directly about donor retention and the health of their base, not just their topline revenue.

Smaller donors are under real financial strain. Americans are struggling to cover expenses right now, and that's showing up as softening in small-dollar giving even as major gifts hold strong. Organizations that rely heavily on a broad base of small donors may be more exposed than their budgets suggest — a useful lens if you're evaluating financial resilience as part of your due diligence.

Election-year dynamics will pull attention and dollars away from other causes. 2026 is a midterm year, and election cycles historically draw discretionary donor dollars toward political giving while also increasing overall donor engagement. Nonprofits outside the political and advocacy space may see softer response rates this fall as a result — worth keeping in mind if a grantee's fundraising numbers dip and it's not a reflection of their program's effectiveness.

The resilient stock market has increased assets.  Foundation and endowment assets are the fastest-growing pool among institutional investors, with growth driven primarily by strong investment performance. Endowment growth is outpacing grantmking growth. The trend line from the last few years strongly supports the claim that strong markets have been growing private philanthropic assets, and that pattern is expected to continue by the end of 2026. 

The takeaway: The nonprofits you fund are navigating a genuinely more complicated fundraising environment this fall than in recent years. The funders who ask good questions now — about donor retention, government funding exposure, and real financial resilience — will be positioned to respond with more than just a check when the picture becomes clearer at year-end. Take a deep look at how upping

your giving in 2026, given these trends, could positively impact the nonprofits demonstrating increased need. 

Sources: Funding for Good — "Nonprofit Fundraising Trends for 2026" (Dec 2025); NonProfit PRO — "5 Forces Shaping the 2026 Nonprofit Fundraising Outlook" (Nov 2025); Orr Group — "Trends for 2026: What's Next in Philanthropy and Nonprofit Fundraising" (Mar 2026); Fuse Fundraising — "2025 Nonprofit Fundraising Trends & 2026 Outlook" (May 2026); Institutional Investor — "Growth of Endowments and Foundations Set to Outpace Corporate DB Plans by 2026" (Nov 2025); Chronicle of Philanthropy — "Prospects for Increased Foundation Payout in 2026" (Nov 2025).